Random Thoughts: Taking a Chance

October 9, 2010 at 3:31 pm | Posted in Lifescape | Leave a comment
Imagine that you are in a casino in Las Vegas, betting at the roulette table, and that 10 consecutive spins of the wheel produce even numbers. How would you bet on the next spin-which number will again be even? Or odd?
clipped from purpleslinky.com

Imagine that you are in a casino in Las Vegas, betting at the roulette table, and that 10 consecutive spins of the wheel produce even numbers. How would you bet on the next spin-which number will again be even? Or odd?

Many would be prepared to stake a lot of money that the next number will be odd. They believe that the “law of averages” will soon compel the wheel to turn up some odd numbers to compensate for the freak run. Statisticians call this the Monte Carlo Fallacy, and it has been responsible for some heavy losses at gambling tables all over the world.

Whenever an event occurs that is completely unpredictable based on its context or the history of such events-such as a particular number coming up in a game of chance-it is called random.

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