Mass reflection – Social networks: The great tipping point test (2) [26Jul10]

July 28, 2010 at 4:20 pm | Posted in Lifescape | Leave a comment
clipped from www.newscientist.com
the raw information for analysis of real-world behaviour is already there in the burgeoning online social networks, and have even shown how it can be used to predict social outcomes.
The Hollywood Stock Exchange (hsx.com) enables movie fans to buy and sell virtual shares in celebrities and in forthcoming or recently released films. This virtual market, which operates with a virtual currency called Hollywood dollars, incorporates the views of millions of people into a stock rating for each film, reflecting the aggregate view on its popularity, or likely popularity.
To measure the buzz for each film, they looked at the rate at which it generated tweets immediately following its release. They used this as a predictor of the ultimate film sales.
The results show that the rate at which movie tweets were generated can provide accurate predictions of box-office revenue, more accurate even than the Hollywood Stock Exchange.
such analyses could soon help predict many other events

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