The Future Is Of Electric Cars

Automakers envision electric cars as a solution to gas price jumps. Environmentalists see bluer skies. And electric utilities? They could be the biggest winners of all.

After years of foot-dragging, major car companies are at last accelerating into a market for electric-powered vehicles of all kinds, analysts say.

At least nine car companies worldwide say that by 2013 they will offer plug-in vehicles that use electric motors as their primary means of propulsion, according to Plug-in America, an activist group. Some will be all-electric drive vehicles (EV). Most will be plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEV) that use small gasoline engines as a backup.

GM and Chrysler both say they will sell a plug-in car in 2010. Ford will sell a battery-powered commercial van next year, a small battery-powered EV car the year after, and a PHEV competitor to GM’s Volt by 2012. Toyota says it will sell a plug-in-hybrid Prius to companies late this year, but hasn’t said when ordinary consumers will be able to buy one. So far, despite its financial woes, GM seems to hold the plug-in lead.

But electric cars and plug-in hybrids, which are expected to start hitting the streets next year, could pose a challenge for utilities that aren’t ready for them. Power companies need to make sure that a concentration of cars in a relatively small area won’t overwhelm the grid. Charging has to be safe. Public charging stations need to be considered.

While the electric car revolution could provide a way to make better use of renewable energy sources, it also presents some big challenges. If lots of electric cars are being charged at the same time in a small community, they could overwhelm the system. For instance, more powerful transformers might be needed.

Plugging in an electric car can be a big energy drain. The key appears to be the strategy of adjusting rates to encourage charging at off-peak times.

The U.S. battery industry is several years behind leading manufacturers in Japan and Korea in the development of affordable, light-weight lithium-ion batteries. Despite a $25 billion dollar federal grant and loan program announced in 2008, the most costly component of the new electric vehicles proposed by U.S. automakers, the battery, is likely to be procured from foreign suppliers.

From an environmental perspective, the adoption of electric cars without sufficient renewable or nuclear electrical generating capacity may actually result in more fossil fuel usage, not less.

As the Obama Administration deals with the bankruptcy crisis of the U.S. auto industry, it is clear that the very nature of U.S. manufacturing must change.
The current discussion about Detroit’s future seems to focus almost exclusively on electric cars. Unfortunately, the electric car is not an ultimate solution, either for the auto industry or for global warming.
Of course, sustained demand for electric cars, ,more fuel-efficient vehicles or mass transit will depend ultimately on predictably increased costs for motor fuels. This is unlikely without taking measures to price petroleum fuels to reflect their real costs, effects on air quality and global climate

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